
Charles De Ketelaere
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Charles De Ketelaere's performance-implied value at EUR 19.2M-57.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.6M-36.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.2M-39.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.70x the positional average in the league (2190 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 32
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 91.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €27.5M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2190 (64% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.33
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1588
- Opponent strength
- 1483
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.2M – €39.9M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-91 Elo); relative output down 28% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -32% (IQR -60% to +2%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | AM | 31 | 2190 | 64% | 3 | 5 | 0.33 | 0.28 | 1483 | 1588 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | AM | 36 | 2080 | 61% | 7 | 8 | 0.65 | 0.39 | 1469 | 1679 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | ST | 35 | 2042 | 60% | 10 | 8 | 0.79 | 0.62 | 1497 | 1709 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | AC Milan | Serie A | AM | 32 | 1101 | 32% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 1449 | 1622 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 33 | 2731 | 89% | 14 | 7 | 0.69 | 0.41 | 1328 | 1512 | 0.49 |
| 2020/21 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | AM | 32 | 1996 | 65% | 3 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.18 | 1336 | 1570 | 0.55 |
| 2019/20 | Club Brugge KV | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 13 | 769 | 29% | 1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.27 | 1395 | 1578 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 8 | 585 | 2 | 2 | 1625 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 3 | 264 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Belgium | 2 | 151 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 10 | 703 | 4 | 5 | 1617 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 2 | 119 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Super Cup | Atalanta BC | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1881 |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | Atalanta BC | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1833 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Atalanta BC | 11 | 611 | 2 | 2 | 1638 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Atalanta BC | 4 | 287 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 6 | 235 | 0 | 0 | 1657 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1704 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 6 | 500 | 0 | 1 | 1727 |
| 2021/22 | Volkswagen Supercup | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1414 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 6 | 458 | 2 | 2 | 1602 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Club Brugge KV | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1504 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Club Brugge KV | 4 | 126 | 0 | 0 | 1639 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Club Brugge KV | 2 | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1665 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattéo Guendouzi Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €25.0M | €27.0M | flat |
| Andrea Cambiaso Serie A · 2024 | 24 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini Serie A · 2020 | 24 | €32.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Kevin-Prince Boateng Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €15.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Manuel Locatelli Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €30.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Tiemoué Bakayoko Serie A · 2019 | 25 | €35.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Houssem Aouar Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Cengiz Ünder Ligue 1 · 2023 | 26 | €20.0M | €7.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | AC Milan | Atalanta | €23.7M | €34.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Atalanta | AC Milan | Free / loan | €34.0M |
| 16 Aug 2023 | AC Milan | Atalanta | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 2 Aug 2022 | Club Brugge | AC Milan | €37.5M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Brügge U21 | Club Brugge | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | FC Brügge U17 | FC Brügge U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Club Brugge Yth | FC Brügge U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.