
Tijjani Reijnders
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tijjani Reijnders's performance-implied value at EUR 33.8M-81.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 23.7M-57.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 21.3M-42.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.00x the positional average in the league (1636 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 23
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 97.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €39.2M vs market €50.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1636 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.39
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.22
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 98 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1809
- Opponent strength
- 1579
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €21.3M – €42.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 44 pts; changed club; team strength up (+184 Elo); league level up (+111 Elo); relative output down 28% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -41% to -10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1636 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester City | Premier League | CM | 28 | 1636 | 48% | 5 | 2 | 0.39 | 0.22 | 1579 | 1809 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | AC Milan | Serie A | CM | 37 | 3132 | 92% | 10 | 5 | 0.43 | 0.29 | 1490 | 1625 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | AC Milan | Serie A | CM | 36 | 2829 | 83% | 3 | 4 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 1460 | 1625 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CM | 34 | 3048 | 100% | 3 | 8 | 0.32 | 0.19 | 1339 | 1530 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CM | 33 | 1288 | 42% | 4 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.22 | 1282 | 1496 | 0.60 |
| 2020/21 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CM | 22 | 722 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1340 | 1557 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | RKC Waalwijk | Eredivisie | CM | 8 | 542 | 23% | 0 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.23 | 1339 | 1174 | 0.62 |
| 2019/20 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CM | 3 | 38 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1250 | 1542 | 0.62 |
| 2017/18 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | CM | 1 | 5 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 18.00 | 0.18 | 1252 | 1489 | 0.59 |
| 2017/18 | PEC Zwolle | Eredivisie | CM | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1208 | 1268 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 10 | 579 | 0 | 3 | 1638 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 5 | 374 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Netherlands | 3 | 201 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 10 | 870 | 3 | 0 | 1615 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 5 | 422 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercoppa Italiana | AC Milan | 2 | 167 | 0 | 0 | 1753 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | AC Milan | 6 | 479 | 0 | 0 | 1694 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | AC Milan | 6 | 410 | 1 | 0 | 1600 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | AC Milan | 2 | 153 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 6 | 505 | 3 | 1 | 1336 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 158 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Dier Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €40.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Jesús Navas Premier League · 2014 | 29 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Luka Modrić Laliga · 2015 | 30 | €50.0M | €40.0M | fell |
| Paul Pogba Premier League · 2020 | 27 | €80.0M | €48.0M | fell |
| Kevin De Bruyne Premier League · 2021 | 30 | €100M | €70.0M | fell |
| Willian Premier League · 2017 | 29 | €32.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Thomas Partey Premier League · 2021 | 28 | €40.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Hakim Ziyech Premier League · 2021 | 28 | €38.0M | €16.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jun 2025 | AC Milan | Man City | €54.9M | €50.0M |
| 19 Jul 2023 | AZ Alkmaar | AC Milan | €24.8M | €14.0M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | RKC Waalwijk | AZ Alkmaar | Free / loan | €625k |
| 2 Jan 2020 | AZ Alkmaar | RKC Waalwijk | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | AZ Alkmaar U21 | AZ Alkmaar | Unknown | €150k |
| 30 Aug 2017 | PEC Zwolle | AZ Alkmaar U21 | Free / loan | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | PEC Zwolle U19 | PEC Zwolle | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | CSV '28 | PEC Zwolle U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | FC Twente U17 | CSV '28 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FC Twente Youth | FC Twente U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | PEC Youth | FC Twente Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.