Tijjani Reijnders

28 yrs · Central midfielder · Netherlands
Manchester City · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 178 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€50.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€23.7M – €57.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€33.8M – €81.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€21.3M – €42.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€23.3M – €57.8M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€23.7M – €57.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€33.8M – €81.6M
Projected value (24 months)€21.3M – €42.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€50.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Tijjani Reijnders's performance-implied value at EUR 33.8M-81.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 23.7M-57.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 21.3M-42.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.00x the positional average in the league (1636 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 23

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite97.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral27.9 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €39.2M vs market €50.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-38% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €70.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1636 (48% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.39
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.22
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
98 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1809
Opponent strength
1579
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€21.3M – €42.2M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 44 pts; changed club; team strength up (+184 Elo); league level up (+111 Elo); relative output down 28% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -41% to -10%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1636 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Manchester CityPremier LeagueCM28163648%520.390.22157918091.30
2024/25AC MilanSerie ACM37313292%1050.430.29149016250.99
2023/24AC MilanSerie ACM36282983%340.220.16146016250.98
2022/23AZ AlkmaarEredivisieCM343048100%380.320.19133915300.58
2021/22AZ AlkmaarEredivisieCM33128842%420.420.22128214960.60
2020/21AZ AlkmaarEredivisieCM2272224%000.000.08134015570.56
2019/20RKC WaalwijkEredivisieCM854223%010.170.23133911740.62
2019/20AZ AlkmaarEredivisieCM3382%000.000.10125015420.62
2017/18AZ AlkmaarEredivisieCM150%0118.000.18125214890.59
2017/18PEC ZwolleEredivisieCM110%000.000.17120812680.59

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueManchester City10579031638
2025/26Fa CupManchester City537412—
2025/26World CupNetherlands320101—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueAC Milan10870301615
2024/25Italy CupAC Milan542220—
2024/25Supercoppa ItalianaAC Milan2167001753
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueAC Milan6479001694
2023/24Uefa Europa LeagueAC Milan6410101600
2023/24Italy CupAC Milan215300—
2022/23Uefa Conference League QualifyingAZ Alkmaar6505311336
2022/23Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar221001—
2021/22Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar415800—
2018/19Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar13200—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Eric Dier
Premier League · 2019
25€40.0M€22.0Mfell
Jesús Navas
Premier League · 2014
29€20.0M€20.0Mflat
Luka Modrić
Laliga · 2015
30€50.0M€40.0Mfell
Paul Pogba
Premier League · 2020
27€80.0M€48.0Mfell
Kevin De Bruyne
Premier League · 2021
30€100M€70.0Mfell
Willian
Premier League · 2017
29€32.0M€40.0Mrose
Thomas Partey
Premier League · 2021
28€40.0M€35.0Mflat
Hakim Ziyech
Premier League · 2021
28€38.0M€16.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
10 Jun 2025AC MilanMan City€54.9M€50.0M
19 Jul 2023AZ AlkmaarAC Milan€24.8M€14.0M
30 Jun 2020RKC WaalwijkAZ AlkmaarFree / loan€625k
2 Jan 2020AZ AlkmaarRKC WaalwijkFree / loan€700k
1 Jan 2018AZ Alkmaar U21AZ AlkmaarUnknown€150k
30 Aug 2017PEC ZwolleAZ Alkmaar U21Free / loan€50k
1 Jul 2017PEC Zwolle U19PEC ZwolleUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2016CSV '28PEC Zwolle U19Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015FC Twente U17CSV '28Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2014FC Twente YouthFC Twente U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011PEC YouthFC Twente YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.