Bafodé Diakité
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Bafodé Diakité's performance-implied value at EUR 21.4M-40.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 16.7M-36.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.8M-26.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 12
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 92.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €27.2M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1275 (37% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1643
- Opponent strength
- 1580
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.8M – €26.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 53 pts; changed club; league level up (+149 Elo); relative output down 76% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +3% (IQR -30% to +18%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1275 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 18 | 1275 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1580 | 1643 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 31 | 2767 | 90% | 4 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 1442 | 1594 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | CB | 21 | 1696 | 55% | 5 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.24 | 1492 | 1552 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | LOSC Lille | Ligue 1 | RB | 33 | 2655 | 78% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1436 | 1555 | 0.82 |
| 2019/20 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | CB | 16 | 1368 | 54% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 1428 | 1210 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | RB | 9 | 632 | 18% | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 1398 | 1317 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | LOSC Lille | 10 | 855 | 0 | 0 | 1659 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 4 | 390 | 0 | 0 | 1597 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | LOSC Lille | 2 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1516 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrell Malacia Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €22.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Davinson Sánchez Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €32.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Mario Hermoso Laliga · 2020 | 25 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Takehiro Tomiyasu Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €25.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Robin Koch Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €17.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Victor Lindelöf Premier League · 2018 | 24 | €25.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Luke Shaw Premier League · 2020 | 25 | €17.5M | €38.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2025 | Lille | Bournemouth | €35.0M | €28.0M |
| 5 Aug 2022 | Toulouse | Lille | €3.0M | €3.0M |
| 26 Oct 2018 | Toulouse FC U17 | Toulouse | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Toulouse For. | Toulouse FC U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.