Djordje Petrovic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Djordje Petrovic's performance-implied value at EUR 17.9M-44.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.9M-39.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.3M-38.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 28
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.1th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €30.5M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -9% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3420 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1643
- Opponent strength
- 1606
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.3M – €38.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+137 Elo); league level up (+149 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -62% to -41%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1606 | 1643 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | GK | 31 | 2790 | 91% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1457 | 1506 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | GK | 23 | 1986 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1556 | 1629 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Pickford Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €40.0M | €22.0M | fell |
| Aaron Ramsdale Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €40.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Kepa Arrizabalaga Premier League · 2020 | 26 | €32.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Guglielmo Vicario Premier League · 2024 | 28 | €35.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| David de Gea Premier League · 2019 | 29 | €65.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| David Soria Laliga · 2020 | 27 | €14.5M | €8.0M | fell |
| Thibaut Courtois Premier League · 2018 | 26 | €60.0M | €48.0M | fell |
| Bernd Leno Premier League · 2019 | 27 | €30.0M | €22.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul 2025 | Chelsea | Bournemouth | €28.9M | €20.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | R. Strasbourg | Chelsea | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Chelsea | R. Strasbourg | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 26 Aug 2023 | New England | Chelsea | €16.0M | €6.0M |
| 6 Apr 2022 | Cukaricki | New England | €915k | €1.2M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | IMT Belgrad | Cukaricki | Free / loan | €100k |
| 14 Aug 2018 | Cukaricki | IMT Belgrad | Free / loan | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Čukarički U19 | Cukaricki | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.