Lucas Rosa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Rosa's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-2.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.3M-5.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.4M-6.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.3M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2145 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1405
- Opponent strength
- 1316
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.4M – €6.3M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+156 Elo); league level down (-186 Elo); role change LB -> RB; relative output down 77% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -33% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 65%–166%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 27 | 2145 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1316 | 1405 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | LB | 21 | 1890 | 55% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.13 | 1531 | 1216 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 5 | 246 | 8% | 0 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.14 | 1386 | 1505 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | Real Valladolid CF | Laliga | RB | 17 | 927 | 27% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.16 | 1506 | 1372 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 264 | 0 | 1 | 1608 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 201 | 0 | 0 | 1546 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 2 | 133 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Real Valladolid CF | 3 | 196 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Okumu Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 25 | €4.5M | €9.0M | rose |
| Vítor Tormena Premier Liga · 2024 | 28 | €5.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Matt Miazga Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mees Hilgers Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Maksim Nenakhov Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €2.8M | €2.5M | flat |
| Siebe Van der Heyden Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Adil Demirbağ Super Lig · 2023 | 26 | €2.3M | €1.8M | fell |
| Toni Borevković Liga Portugal · 2024 | 27 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Feb 2025 | Real Valladolid | Ajax | €3.0M | €2.0M |
| 1 Oct 2022 | Valladolid Prom | Real Valladolid | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Juventus U23 | Valladolid Prom | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Juventus U19 | Juventus U23 | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Palmeiras U17 | Juventus U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.