Wesley Fofana
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Wesley Fofana's performance-implied value at EUR 19.8M-33.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 19.0M-40.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 14.4M-30.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 9
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 92.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €29.9M vs market €28.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1726 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1615
- Opponent strength
- 1599
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €14.4M – €30.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 16 pts; team strength down (-84 Elo); relative output up 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -34% to +15%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1726 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 25 | 1726 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 1599 | 1615 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 14 | 1176 | 34% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1584 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CB | 15 | 1187 | 35% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 1599 | 1579 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Leicester City | Premier League | CB | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1581 | 1498 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Leicester City | Premier League | CB | 7 | 630 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1531 | 1582 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Leicester City | Premier League | CB | 28 | 2265 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1567 | 1585 | 1.19 |
| 2020/21 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | CB | 4 | 315 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1454 | 1371 | 0.75 |
| 2019/20 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | CB | 14 | 1215 | 48% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1457 | 1383 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Angers SCO | Ligue 1 | CB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1537 | 1409 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | AS Saint-Étienne | Ligue 1 | RB | 1 | 70 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1470 | 1519 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 6 | 480 | 0 | 1 | 1639 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 3 | 172 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 5 | 398 | 1 | 0 | 1733 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Leicester City | 6 | 470 | 0 | 0 | 1467 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Leicester City | 4 | 350 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | AS Saint-Étienne | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1468 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka Premier League · 2024 | 27 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Gabriel Paulista Laliga · 2015 | 25 | €12.0M | €13.0M | flat |
| Mamadou Sakho Premier League · 2016 | 26 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Unai Núñez Laliga · 2020 | 23 | €16.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Héctor Bellerín Premier League · 2020 | 25 | €32.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Trevoh Chalobah Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €18.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Marcos Rojo Premier League · 2017 | 27 | €18.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Pervis Estupiñán Laliga · 2022 | 24 | €20.0M | €30.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Aug 2022 | Leicester | Chelsea | €80.4M | €40.0M |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Saint-Étienne | Leicester | €35.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Saint-Étienne B | Saint-Étienne | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | St-Étienne U19 | Saint-Étienne B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | St-Étienne U17 | St-Étienne U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2015 | SC Air Bel Jgd. | St-Étienne U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.