Moisés Caicedo

The model rates Moisés Caicedo's performance-implied value at EUR 42.0M-72.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 66.6M-134.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 55.1M-114.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.64x the positional average in the league (2802 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

2802 (82% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.13

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.08

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

97 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

1.30 (rank 1)

Team strength (Elo)

1615

Opponent strength

1598

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Moderate

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€55.1M – €115M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; team strength down (-84 Elo); relative output down 22% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -36% to -2%).

• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.