Ian Maatsen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ian Maatsen's performance-implied value at EUR 22.2M-35.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 18.8M-41.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 20.2M-41.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 92.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €32.8M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1599 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.11
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 93 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1721
- Opponent strength
- 1603
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €20.2M – €41.2M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -38% (IQR -43% to +36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1599 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | LB | 30 | 1599 | 47% | 0 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 1603 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Aston Villa | Premier League | LB | 29 | 1127 | 33% | 1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 1539 | 1695 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LB | 16 | 1269 | 41% | 2 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.15 | 1478 | 1716 | 1.01 |
| 2023/24 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | LB | 12 | 201 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1527 | 1629 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 10 | 547 | 1 | 0 | 1477 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 2 | 91 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Aston Villa | 10 | 373 | 1 | 0 | 1582 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 4 | 212 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 630 | 1 | 0 | 1744 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| José María Giménez Laliga · 2018 | 23 | €45.0M | €56.0M | rose |
| Oleksandr Zinchenko Premier League · 2023 | 27 | €42.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Sime Vrsaljko Laliga · 2018 | 26 | €25.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Fikayo Tomori Premier League · 2020 | 23 | €16.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Éder Militão Laliga · 2021 | 23 | €40.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Héctor Bellerín Premier League · 2020 | 25 | €32.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Davinson Sánchez Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €28.0M | €17.0M | fell |
| Juan Foyth Laliga · 2022 | 24 | €25.0M | €15.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Chelsea | Aston Villa | €44.5M | €40.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Dortmund | Chelsea | Free / loan | €40.0M |
| 12 Jan 2024 | Chelsea | Dortmund | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Chelsea U21 | Chelsea | Unknown | €12.0M |
| 31 May 2023 | Burnley | Chelsea U21 | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 15 Jul 2022 | Chelsea U21 | Burnley | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 31 May 2022 | Coventry | Chelsea U23 | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jul 2021 | Chelsea U23 | Coventry | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2021 | Charlton | Chelsea U23 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 13 Oct 2020 | Chelsea U23 | Charlton | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Chelsea U18 | Chelsea U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | PSV Yth. | Chelsea U18 | €110k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sparta Youth | PSV Yth. | €26k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Feyenoord Youth | Sparta Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.