Francisco Conceição
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Francisco Conceição's performance-implied value at EUR 16.8M-38.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.9M-39.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 20.0M-40.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.74x the positional average in the league (2098 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 80.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €30.8M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2098 (61% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1614
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €20.0M – €40.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 22 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +13% (IQR -32% to +76%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Juventus FC | Serie A | RW | 31 | 2098 | 61% | 3 | 5 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 1493 | 1614 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Juventus FC | Serie A | RW | 26 | 1338 | 39% | 3 | 4 | 0.47 | 0.36 | 1483 | 1629 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | RW | 27 | 1895 | 62% | 5 | 4 | 0.43 | 0.24 | 1363 | 1628 | 0.58 |
| 2022/23 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RW | 19 | 513 | 17% | 0 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.23 | 1340 | 1593 | 0.58 |
| 2021/22 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | RM | 25 | 466 | 15% | 2 | 2 | 0.77 | 0.27 | 1321 | 1692 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | RW | 14 | 210 | 7% | 0 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.24 | 1318 | 1680 | 0.61 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 9 | 500 | 1 | 0 | 1562 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 2 | 96 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Portugal | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 9 | 605 | 1 | 2 | 1643 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 2 | 111 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 8 | 238 | 1 | 1 | 1746 |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 5 | 245 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 3 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1753 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Ajax Amsterdam | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1626 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 2 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1792 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1573 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | FC Porto | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1701 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adem Ljajic Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €13.5M | €11.0M | flat |
| Rafael Leão Serie A · 2021 | 22 | €25.0M | €90.0M | rose |
| Stephan El Shaarawy Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €17.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Samuel Chukwueze Laliga · 2023 | 24 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Patrik Schick Bundesliga · 2021 | 25 | €23.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Mario Balotelli Serie A · 2013 | 23 | €30.0M | €11.0M | fell |
| Lorenzo Insigne Serie A · 2014 | 23 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Gerard Deulofeu Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €12.0M | €25.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2025 | Porto | Juventus | €32.0M | €28.0M |
| 15 Jul 2025 | Juventus | Porto | Free / loan | €28.0M |
| 27 Aug 2024 | Porto | Juventus | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Ajax | Porto | €10.2M | €22.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Porto | Ajax | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 1 Sept 2023 | Ajax | Porto | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 21 Jul 2022 | Porto | Ajax | €5.1M | €8.0M |
| 10 Feb 2021 | FC Porto B | Porto | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 3 Aug 2020 | FC Porto U19 | FC Porto B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Porto U17 | FC Porto U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Padroense U17 | FC Porto U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sporting Sub-15 | Padroense U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2011 | Belenenses Yth | Sporting Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.