Lucas Da Cunha
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lucas Da Cunha's performance-implied value at EUR 11.7M-30.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.5M-27.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.5M-36.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.32x the positional average in the league (2748 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 63
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €20.3M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2748 (80% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.36
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.5M – €36.4M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+128 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +29% (IQR -16% to +65%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Como 1907 | Serie A | CM | 36 | 2748 | 80% | 6 | 5 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 1495 | 1589 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Como 1907 | Serie A | CM | 36 | 2625 | 77% | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.23 | 1507 | 1461 | 0.99 |
| 2021/22 | Clermont Foot 63 | Ligue 1 | RW | 15 | 843 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.36 | 1431 | 1324 | 0.86 |
| 2021/22 | OGC Nice | Ligue 1 | RW | 10 | 393 | 11% | 0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.30 | 1406 | 1493 | 0.86 |
| 2019/20 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | RW | 2 | 72 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 1326 | 1507 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Como 1907 | 6 | 445 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Como 1907 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Stade Rennais FC | 2 | 102 | 0 | 0 | 1563 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miralem Pjanić Serie A · 2015 | 25 | €26.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Giacomo Bonaventura Serie A · 2015 | 26 | €15.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Corentin Tolisso Ligue 1 · 2017 | 23 | €22.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Florian Neuhaus Bundesliga · 2021 | 24 | €35.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Antonio Candreva Serie A · 2013 | 26 | €10.0M | €27.0M | rose |
| Morgan Sanson Ligue 1 · 2020 | 26 | €22.5M | €10.0M | fell |
| Daichi Kamada Bundesliga · 2021 | 25 | €25.0M | €27.0M | flat |
| Juan Cuadrado Serie A · 2014 | 26 | €24.0M | €25.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2023 | Nice | Como | €750k | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Clermont Foot | Nice | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 17 Jan 2022 | Nice | Clermont Foot | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Lausanne-Sport | Nice | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Oct 2020 | Nice | Lausanne-Sport | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 30 Sept 2020 | Stade Rennais | Nice | €1.0M | €1.8M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Rennes B | Stade Rennais | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Rennes U17 | Rennes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Roannais 42 Jgd | Rennes U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.