Luka Sucic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luka Sucic's performance-implied value at EUR 2.8M-8.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 6.1M-12.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.6M-16.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.32x the positional average in the league (1019 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 46
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 56.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €8.5M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1019 (30% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 57 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1462
- Opponent strength
- 1452
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.6M – €16.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; relative output up 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -26% (IQR -47% to -12%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1019 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CM | 22 | 1019 | 30% | 3 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.29 | 1452 | 1462 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Real Sociedad | Laliga | CM | 29 | 1794 | 52% | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.20 | 1534 | 1464 | 0.95 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 6 | 332 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Croatia | 1 | 18 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Real Sociedad | 6 | 382 | 2 | 0 | 1571 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Real Sociedad | 5 | 312 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eduard Löwen Bundesliga · 2020 | 23 | €5.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Rolando Mandragora Serie A · 2022 | 25 | €10.0M | €8.5M | flat |
| Nadiem Amiri Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
| Hamed Traoré Serie A · 2023 | 23 | €22.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Angelo Stiller Bundesliga · 2023 | 22 | €5.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Niels Nkounkou Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €7.5M | €2.6M | fell |
| Ibrahima Diallo Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €10.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Valentín Vada Ligue 1 · 2018 | 22 | €4.0M | €2.4M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2024 | Salzburg | Real Sociedad | €10.0M | €15.0M |
| 1 Aug 2020 | FC Liefering | Salzburg | Unknown | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AKA Salzb. U18 | FC Liefering | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AKA Salzb. U16 | AKA Salzb. U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2017 | AKA Salzb. U15 | AKA Salzb. U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Salzburg Youth | AKA Salzb. U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2016 | Edelweiß Jug. | Salzburg Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Alkoven Yth. | Edelweiß Jug. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.