Riccardo Calafiori
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Riccardo Calafiori's performance-implied value at EUR 26.9M-41.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 37.1M-75.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 28.8M-59.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €65.5M vs market €55.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1708 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1876
- Opponent strength
- 1571
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €28.8M – €59.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 21 pts; team strength up (+62 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -4% (IQR -33% to +32%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1708 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LB | 26 | 1708 | 50% | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.10 | 1571 | 1876 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LB | 19 | 985 | 29% | 2 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.12 | 1534 | 1813 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Bologna Football Club 1909 | Serie A | CB | 30 | 2338 | 68% | 2 | 5 | 0.27 | 0.19 | 1468 | 1579 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CB | 6 | 172 | 5% | 0 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.09 | 1369 | 1589 | 0.89 |
| 2021/22 | Genoa CFC | Serie A | LB | 3 | 80 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1552 | 1325 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | LB | 3 | 65 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1574 | 1591 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | LM | 1 | 60 | 2% | 0 | 1 | 1.50 | 0.44 | 1660 | 1582 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 6 | 332 | 0 | 1 | 1608 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 106 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 8 | 430 | 1 | 1 | 1631 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Bologna Football Club 1909 | 3 | 130 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Basel 1893 | 1 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1328 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 5 | 354 | 1 | 0 | 1614 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nélson Semedo Laliga · 2019 | 26 | €40.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Benjamin Mendy Premier League · 2020 | 26 | €28.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| José María Giménez Laliga · 2018 | 23 | €45.0M | €56.0M | rose |
| Lucas Hernández Bundesliga · 2021 | 25 | €45.0M | €45.0M | flat |
| Jordi Alba Laliga · 2015 | 26 | €35.0M | €32.0M | flat |
| Éder Militão Laliga · 2021 | 23 | €40.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Daniel Carvajal Laliga · 2017 | 25 | €32.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Nathan Aké Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €42.0M | €25.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2024 | Bologna | Arsenal | €43.7M | €45.0M |
| 31 Aug 2023 | Basel | Bologna | €23.9M | €4.5M |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Roma | Basel | €10.5M | €3.5M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Genoa | Roma | Free / loan | €3.5M |
| 14 Jan 2022 | Roma | Genoa | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Roma U19 | Roma | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Roma U17 | Roma U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | AS Rom Youth | Roma U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.