Tino Livramento
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Tino Livramento's performance-implied value at EUR 25.9M-30.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 27.0M-60.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 25.3M-48.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 90.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €46.6M vs market €45.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -38% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1328 (39% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1631
- Opponent strength
- 1590
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €25.3M – €48.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 44 pts; relative output up 91% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -33% (IQR -60% to +10%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1328 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Newcastle United | Premier League | RB | 17 | 1328 | 39% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 1590 | 1631 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Newcastle United | Premier League | RB | 37 | 2843 | 83% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1561 | 1653 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Newcastle United | Premier League | RB | 26 | 1306 | 38% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1568 | 1610 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Southampton FC | Premier League | RB | 2 | 26 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 1686 | 1375 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Southampton FC | Premier League | RB | 28 | 2203 | 64% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 1564 | 1436 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 5 | 308 | 0 | 0 | 1720 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 2 | 69 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Newcastle United | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1675 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 3 | 46 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 3 | 212 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Cucurella Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €35.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Çağlar Söyüncü Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €45.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Cristian Romero Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €48.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Takehiro Tomiyasu Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €25.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Robin Koch Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €17.0M | €18.0M | flat |
| Aaron Hickey Premier League · 2023 | 21 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Lukas Klostermann Bundesliga · 2021 | 25 | €27.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Álvaro Odriozola Laliga · 2019 | 24 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2023 | Southampton | Newcastle | €37.2M | €25.0M |
| 2 Aug 2021 | Chelsea U23 | Southampton | €26.2M | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Chelsea U18 | Chelsea U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Chelsea Youth | Chelsea U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.