Valentin Mihăilă
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Valentin Mihăilă's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-2.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.3M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.6M-4.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.40x the positional average in the league (1303 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 77
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 27.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 26.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1303 (43% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.55
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.57
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 28 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1269
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.6M – €4.0M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-113 Elo); league level down (-234 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -24% (IQR -67% to +14%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1303 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 79%–133%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 58%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Caykur Rizespor | Super Lig | LW | 22 | 1303 | 43% | 5 | 3 | 0.55 | 0.57 | 1269 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | LW | 21 | 1296 | 38% | 0 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.46 | 1493 | 1342 | 0.99 |
| 2021/22 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | LW | 5 | 74 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 1378 | 1566 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | LW | 16 | 690 | 20% | 3 | 2 | 0.65 | 0.63 | 1455 | 1252 | 0.90 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Atalanta BC | 2 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1537 |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Universitatea Craiova | 1 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1350 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Saint-Louis Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €2.2M | €500k | fell |
| Levan Shengelia Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €2.0M | €750k | fell |
| Benhur Keser Super Lig · 2024 | 28 | €1.2M | €700k | fell |
| Gerson Rodrigues Super Lig · 2020 | 25 | €1.4M | €2.5M | rose |
| Renat Dadashov Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €1.8M | €400k | fell |
| Konrad Michalak Super Lig · 2021 | 24 | €1.5M | €1.7M | flat |
| Ronaldo Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €3.5M | €3.5M | flat |
| Mortadha Ben Ouanes Super Lig · 2022 | 28 | €1.3M | €1.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2025 | Parma | C. Rizespor | €1.9M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Atalanta | Parma | Free / loan | €5.5M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Parma | Atalanta | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 5 Oct 2020 | Univ. Craiova | Parma | €9.5M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | U. Craiova U19 | Univ. Craiova | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2015 | U Craiova Youth | U. Craiova U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.