Amad Diallo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Amad Diallo's performance-implied value at EUR 27.8M-58.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 33.5M-62.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 25.6M-54.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.67x the positional average in the league (2346 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 11
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 94.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €50.9M vs market €45.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -23% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2346 (69% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1715
- Opponent strength
- 1600
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €25.6M – €54.2M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+112 Elo); relative output down 48% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -44% to -8%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Manchester United | Premier League | RW | 32 | 2346 | 69% | 2 | 4 | 0.23 | 0.26 | 1600 | 1715 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Manchester United | Premier League | RW | 26 | 1903 | 56% | 8 | 8 | 0.76 | 0.56 | 1554 | 1603 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester United | Premier League | RW | 9 | 388 | 11% | 1 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.36 | 1573 | 1594 | 1.14 |
| 2021/22 | Rangers FC | Scottish Premiership | RW | 5 | 161 | 5% | 1 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.28 | 1326 | 1601 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | Manchester United | Premier League | RW | 3 | 167 | 5% | 0 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.28 | 1547 | 1741 | 1.19 |
| 2020/21 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | RW | 1 | 13 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 1350 | 1673 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Atalanta BC | Serie A | AM | 3 | 24 | 1% | 1 | 0 | 3.75 | 0.34 | 1440 | 1666 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Africa Cup Of Nations | Ivory Coast | 5 | 353 | 3 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Ivory Coast | 3 | 154 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 11 | 598 | 2 | 1 | 1547 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 2 | 130 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Community Shield | Manchester United | 1 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1893 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 3 | 82 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Sunderland AFC | 3 | 251 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | Rangers FC | 3 | 156 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 1 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1563 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 4 | 91 | 1 | 0 | 1598 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Atalanta BC | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1473 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Iwobi Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €25.0M | €22.0M | flat |
| Antony Premier League · 2023 | 23 | €60.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Álvaro Morata Laliga · 2019 | 27 | €50.0M | €45.0M | flat |
| Darwin Núñez Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €70.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Marco Asensio Laliga · 2019 | 23 | €60.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Yannick Carrasco Laliga · 2017 | 24 | €40.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Kai Havertz Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €70.0M | €70.0M | flat |
| Willian Premier League · 2014 | 26 | €30.0M | €32.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2023 | Sunderland | Man Utd | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 31 Aug 2022 | Man Utd | Sunderland | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 31 May 2022 | Rangers | Man Utd | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 27 Jan 2022 | Man Utd | Rangers | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 2 Jan 2021 | Atalanta | Man Utd | €27.3M | €15.0M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Atalanta U19 | Atalanta | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Atalanta U17 | Atalanta U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Atalanta Youth | Atalanta U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Boca Barco | Atalanta Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.