Botond Balogh
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Botond Balogh's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-1.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.9M-2.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-3.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 93
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.1M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1657 (54% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1188
- Opponent strength
- 1272
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €3.4M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength down (-154 Elo); league level down (-234 Elo); relative output down 68% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -48% (IQR -56% to -15%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1657 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kocaelispor | Super Lig | CB | 21 | 1657 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1272 | 1188 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | CB | 29 | 2053 | 60% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 1520 | 1342 | 0.99 |
| 2020/21 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | CB | 3 | 163 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 1613 | 1252 | 0.90 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Luckassen Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Atakan Çankaya Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €1.5M | €800k | fell |
| Georgios Mygas Super League 1 · 2017 | 23 | €750k | €300k | fell |
| Fatih Aksoy Super Lig · 2023 | 26 | €3.2M | €1.6M | fell |
| Khadim Rassoul Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €1.1M | €500k | fell |
| Nikolay Rasskazov Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Adil Demirbağ Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.8M | €3.0M | rose |
| Florent Hadergjonaj Super Lig · 2020 | 26 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Kocaelispor | Parma | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 7 Sept 2025 | Parma | Kocaelispor | Free / loan | €2.4M |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Parma U19 | Parma | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 28 Aug 2019 | MTK U19 | Parma U19 | €150k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | MTK U17 | MTK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | MTK Yth. | MTK U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 12 Aug 2015 | SC Sopron Jgd | MTK Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.