Álex Baena

The model rates Álex Baena's performance-implied value at EUR 18.1M-45.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 27.2M-48.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 17.6M-42.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.55x the positional average in the league (1572 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1572 (46% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.29

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.23

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

88 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.95 (rank 2)

Team strength (Elo)

1619

Opponent strength

1457

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Moderate

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€17.6M – €42.2M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 30 pts; changed club; relative output down 54% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -15% (IQR -46% to -5%).

• ⚠Limited sample: 1572 league minutes last season.
• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.