
Troy Parrott
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Troy Parrott's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-16.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.8M-34.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.0M-29.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (2206 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 26
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 65.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €24.1M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2206 (72% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.86
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.52
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1307
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €12.0M – €29.1M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-73 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -46% to -6%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | ST | 28 | 2206 | 72% | 16 | 5 | 0.86 | 0.52 | 1307 | 1393 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie | ST | 28 | 2193 | 72% | 14 | 2 | 0.66 | 0.50 | 1317 | 1466 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | Excelsior Rotterdam | Eredivisie | ST | 25 | 1588 | 52% | 10 | 4 | 0.79 | 0.88 | 1382 | 1142 | 0.48 |
| 2019/20 | Tottenham Hotspur | Premier League | ST | 2 | 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 1533 | 1630 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 480 | 5 | 5 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 309 | 7 | 1 | 1359 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 858 | 4 | 2 | 1573 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 360 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | Excelsior Rotterdam | 3 | 229 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Tottenham Hotspur | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Bergwijn Eredivisie · 2024 | 27 | €18.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Bitello Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Diego Rossi Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €14.5M | €7.0M | fell |
| Fedor Chalov Premier Liga · 2024 | 26 | €11.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Brian Brobbey Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €35.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Chidera Ejuke Premier Liga · 2022 | 24 | €7.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Malcom Premier Liga · 2022 | 25 | €22.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Aleksandr Sobolev Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €9.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul 2024 | Tottenham U21 | AZ Alkmaar | €4.0M | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Excelsior | Tottenham U21 | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 24 Aug 2023 | Tottenham U21 | Excelsior | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 31 May 2023 | Preston | Tottenham U21 | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 25 Jul 2022 | Tottenham U21 | Preston | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 31 May 2022 | MK Dons | Tottenham U23 | Free / loan | €3.6M |
| 29 Jul 2021 | Tottenham U23 | MK Dons | Free / loan | €3.6M |
| 31 May 2021 | Ipswich | Tottenham U23 | Free / loan | €3.6M |
| 1 Feb 2021 | Tottenham U23 | Ipswich | Free / loan | €3.6M |
| 31 Jan 2021 | Millwall | Tottenham U23 | Free / loan | €3.6M |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Tottenham U23 | Millwall | Free / loan | €3.6M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Spurs U18 | Tottenham U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Tottenham Yth. | Spurs U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Belvedere FC | Tottenham Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.