Troy Parrott

24 yrs · Striker · Ireland
AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie · Foot: right · Height: 185 cm
Risk: LowConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€25.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€17.8M – €34.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.3M – €16.5M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€12.0M – €29.1M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€30.7M – -€1.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€17.8M – €34.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.3M – €16.5M
Projected value (24 months)€12.0M – €29.1M
Dashed line: current market value (€25.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Troy Parrott's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-16.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 17.8M-34.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 12.0M-29.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.03x the positional average in the league (2206 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 26

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAbove average65.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.4 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €24.1M vs market €25.0M
Expected appreciationLow-20% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskLow
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €25.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2206 (72% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.86
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.52
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
65 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1393
Opponent strength
1307
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€12.0M – €29.1M

Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-73 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -46% to -6%).

Risk profile

Overall: Low

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
82 (ATT)
Relative output kept
73%–122%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
61%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26AZ AlkmaarEredivisieST28220672%1650.860.52130713930.43
2024/25AZ AlkmaarEredivisieST28219372%1420.660.50131714660.50
2023/24Excelsior RotterdamEredivisieST25158852%1040.790.88138211420.48
2019/20Tottenham HotspurPremier LeagueST260%000.000.40153316301.14

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar548055—
2025/26Uefa Conference League QualifyingAZ Alkmaar5309711359
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueAZ Alkmaar12858421573
2024/25Knvb BekerAZ Alkmaar536021—
2023/24Knvb BekerExcelsior Rotterdam322900—
2019/20Fa CupTottenham Hotspur12400—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Steven Bergwijn
Eredivisie · 2024
27€18.0M€10.0Mfell
Bitello
Premier Liga · 2024
24€12.0M€15.0Mrose
Diego Rossi
Super Lig · 2022
24€14.5M€7.0Mfell
Fedor Chalov
Premier Liga · 2024
26€11.0M€4.0Mfell
Brian Brobbey
Eredivisie · 2024
22€35.0M€30.0Mflat
Chidera Ejuke
Premier Liga · 2022
24€7.5M€6.0Mfell
Malcom
Premier Liga · 2022
25€22.0M€28.0Mrose
Aleksandr Sobolev
Premier Liga · 2023
26€9.0M€6.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
13 Jul 2024Tottenham U21AZ Alkmaar€4.0M€4.5M
30 Jun 2024ExcelsiorTottenham U21Free / loan€4.5M
24 Aug 2023Tottenham U21ExcelsiorFree / loan€4.0M
31 May 2023PrestonTottenham U21Free / loan€4.0M
25 Jul 2022Tottenham U21PrestonFree / loan€5.0M
31 May 2022MK DonsTottenham U23Free / loan€3.6M
29 Jul 2021Tottenham U23MK DonsFree / loan€3.6M
31 May 2021IpswichTottenham U23Free / loan€3.6M
1 Feb 2021Tottenham U23IpswichFree / loan€3.6M
31 Jan 2021MillwallTottenham U23Free / loan€3.6M
1 Aug 2020Tottenham U23MillwallFree / loan€3.6M
1 Jul 2019Spurs U18Tottenham U23UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Tottenham Yth.Spurs U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017Belvedere FCTottenham Yth.UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.