Quentin Merlin
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Quentin Merlin's performance-implied value at EUR 8.2M-19.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.8M-21.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.2M-22.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 77.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €15.1M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -5% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2532 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.25
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1453
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.2M – €22.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 31 pts; changed club; role change LM -> LB; relative output up 115% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +38% (IQR -18% to +105%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Stade Rennais FC | Ligue 1 | LB | 33 | 2532 | 83% | 1 | 6 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 1453 | 1520 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | LM | 27 | 1598 | 52% | 1 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.17 | 1420 | 1557 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | LM | 16 | 1290 | 42% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 1466 | 1309 | 0.87 |
| 2023/24 | Olympique Marseille | Ligue 1 | LB | 10 | 705 | 23% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 1483 | 1534 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | LB | 24 | 1803 | 53% | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 1414 | 1349 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | FC Nantes | Ligue 1 | LB | 28 | 1924 | 56% | 2 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 1425 | 1457 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Marseille | 7 | 497 | 0 | 0 | 1562 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | FC Nantes | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1547 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeison Murillo Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €18.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Sime Vrsaljko Serie A · 2016 | 24 | €13.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Duje Caleta-Car Ligue 1 · 2020 | 24 | €20.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Alessandro Florenzi Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €18.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Theo Hernández Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €32.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Valentino Lazaro Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €17.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Alessandro Buongiorno Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €10.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Maxence Lacroix Bundesliga · 2024 | 24 | €20.0M | €50.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2025 | Marseille | Stade Rennais | €13.0M | €15.0M |
| 26 Jan 2024 | FC Nantes | Marseille | €10.0M | €10.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | FC Nantes B | FC Nantes | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | FC Nantes U19 | FC Nantes B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | FC Nantes U17 | FC Nantes U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | FC Nantes Yth. | FC Nantes U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Pornic Foot | FC Nantes Yth. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2013 | FC Nantes Yth. | Pornic Foot | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.