Youri Regeer

23 yrs · Defensive midfielder (also RB) · Netherlands
Ajax Amsterdam · Eredivisie · Foot: right · Height: 177 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.4M – €6.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€892k – €5.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.7M – €7.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€5.9M – €3.0M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.4M – €6.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€892k – €5.3M
Projected value (24 months)€2.7M – €7.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Youri Regeer's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-5.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.4M-6.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-7.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.68x the positional average in the league (1697 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 53

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceAverage42.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeFavorable22.9 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €4.0M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationLow-17% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery negativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModeratebreakout probability 9%
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €6.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1697 (56% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.16
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.08
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
42 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.43 (rank 15)
Team strength (Elo)
1405
Opponent strength
1305
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
9%
Resale range (24m)
€2.7M – €7.3M

Trajectory drivers: changed club.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -34% to +36%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1697 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
53 (MID)
Relative output kept
76%–148%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieDM25169755%030.160.08130514050.43
2024/25FC Twente EnschedeEredivisieDM19134544%010.070.06128814090.50
2024/25Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieDM41124%111.610.21141815050.50
2023/24FC Twente EnschedeEredivisieRB32174957%220.210.13132914660.48
2022/23Ajax AmsterdamEredivisieRB380%000.000.05119815930.58

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueAjax Amsterdam8433001601
2025/26Knvb BekerAjax Amsterdam215400—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueFC Twente Enschede6466021553
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Twente Enschede190001618
2024/25Knvb BekerFC Twente Enschede14500—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Twente Enschede5202001399
2023/24Knvb BekerFC Twente Enschede15800—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Konstantinos Galanopoulos
Super League 1 · 2019
22€3.5M€2.0Mfell
Danil Prutsev
Premier Liga · 2024
24€4.5M€6.0Mrose
Abdülkadir Ömür
Super Lig · 2022
23€10.5M€7.0Mfell
Kristian Thorstvedt
Jupiler Pro League · 2022
23€5.0M€8.0Mrose
Gaël Kakuta
Eredivisie · 2013
22€4.0M€3.5Mflat
Kristian Hlynsson
Eredivisie · 2024
20€7.0M€6.0Mflat
Nail Umyarov
Premier Liga · 2022
22€4.0M€2.5Mfell
Bakhtiyor Zaynutdinov
Premier Liga · 2022
24€3.5M€5.0Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
24 Jan 2025FC TwenteAjax€4.5M€6.0M
1 Jul 2023AjaxFC Twente€900k€1.3M
1 Jul 2022Ajax U21AjaxUnknown€2.4M
1 Jul 2020Ajax U19Ajax U21UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2019Ajax U17Ajax U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Ajax YouthAjax U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2017ADO YouthAjax YouthFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Rijns. B. Yth.ADO YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.