
Youri Regeer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Youri Regeer's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-5.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.4M-6.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-7.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.68x the positional average in the league (1697 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 53
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 42.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €4.0M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 9% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1697 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.08
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 42 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1405
- Opponent strength
- 1305
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 9%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €7.3M
Trajectory drivers: changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -34% to +36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1697 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 25 | 1697 | 55% | 0 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 1305 | 1405 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | DM | 19 | 1345 | 44% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1288 | 1409 | 0.50 |
| 2024/25 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | DM | 4 | 112 | 4% | 1 | 1 | 1.61 | 0.21 | 1418 | 1505 | 0.50 |
| 2023/24 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | RB | 32 | 1749 | 57% | 2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 1329 | 1466 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | Ajax Amsterdam | Eredivisie | RB | 3 | 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1198 | 1593 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Ajax Amsterdam | 8 | 433 | 0 | 0 | 1601 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Ajax Amsterdam | 2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Twente Enschede | 6 | 466 | 0 | 2 | 1553 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1618 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Twente Enschede | 5 | 202 | 0 | 0 | 1399 |
| 2023/24 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Galanopoulos Super League 1 · 2019 | 22 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Danil Prutsev Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €4.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Abdülkadir Ömür Super Lig · 2022 | 23 | €10.5M | €7.0M | fell |
| Kristian Thorstvedt Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €5.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Gaël Kakuta Eredivisie · 2013 | 22 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Kristian Hlynsson Eredivisie · 2024 | 20 | €7.0M | €6.0M | flat |
| Nail Umyarov Premier Liga · 2022 | 22 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Bakhtiyor Zaynutdinov Premier Liga · 2022 | 24 | €3.5M | €5.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 2025 | FC Twente | Ajax | €4.5M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Ajax | FC Twente | €900k | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Ajax U21 | Ajax | Unknown | €2.4M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Ajax U19 | Ajax U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Ajax U17 | Ajax U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Ajax Youth | Ajax U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | ADO Youth | Ajax Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Rijns. B. Yth. | ADO Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.