Abdel Abqar
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Abdel Abqar's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-5.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-4.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.5M-4.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 65.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 27.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.2M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1441 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.14
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 65 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1446
- Opponent strength
- 1479
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.5M – €4.7M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 30 pts; changed club; relative output up 143% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -35% (IQR -44% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1441 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Getafe CF | Laliga | CB | 23 | 1441 | 42% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 1479 | 1446 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | CB | 29 | 2467 | 72% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1501 | 1418 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | CB | 27 | 2315 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1518 | 1431 | 1.00 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Getafe CF | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandru Epureanu Premier Liga · 2014 | 28 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Papy Djilobodji Bundesliga · 2016 | 28 | €3.5M | €5.5M | rose |
| Edimilson Fernandes Bundesliga · 2024 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.2M | fell |
| Niklas Stark Bundesliga · 2024 | 29 | €5.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Alejandro Gálvez Bundesliga · 2015 | 26 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Marvin Plattenhardt Bundesliga · 2020 | 28 | €5.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Fali Laliga · 2022 | 29 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Pablo Maffeo Laliga · 2024 | 27 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2025 | Alavés | Getafe | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Alavés B | Alavés | Unknown | €150k |
| 22 Jul 2020 | Atl. Malagueño | Alavés B | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Málaga U19 | Atl. Malagueño | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | AM Football | Málaga U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.