Cole Palmer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Cole Palmer's performance-implied value at EUR 54.9M-73.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 55.1M-129.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 52.6M-107.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.02x the positional average in the league (1965 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 4
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €104M vs market €100M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1965 (57% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.50
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.41
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1615
- Opponent strength
- 1617
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €52.6M – €108M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 36 pts; team strength down (-84 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +4% (IQR -55% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | AM | 26 | 1965 | 57% | 10 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.41 | 1617 | 1615 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | AM | 37 | 3200 | 94% | 15 | 9 | 0.68 | 0.45 | 1555 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | AM | 33 | 2618 | 77% | 22 | 11 | 1.13 | 0.83 | 1573 | 1629 | 1.14 |
| 2023/24 | Manchester City | Premier League | AM | 1 | 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1454 | 1893 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester City | Premier League | AM | 14 | 358 | 10% | 0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 1546 | 1915 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Manchester City | Premier League | AM | 4 | 122 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1482 | 1866 | 1.17 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 4 | 277 | 1 | 2 | 1762 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 81 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Chelsea FC | 2 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1463 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 6 | 443 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Super Cup | Manchester City | 1 | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1568 |
| 2023/24 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 1726 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 4 | 147 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 4 | 137 | 0 | 0 | 1520 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Manchester City | 1 | 86 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Community Shield | Manchester City | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1585 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 3 | 38 | 1 | 0 | 1571 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester City | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1541 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enzo Fernández Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €75.0M | €90.0M | rose |
| Kevin De Bruyne Premier League · 2016 | 25 | €60.0M | €150M | rose |
| Lucas Torreira Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €55.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Yves Bissouma Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €35.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| James Maddison Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €55.0M | €60.0M | flat |
| Mason Mount Premier League · 2022 | 23 | €75.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Mikel Merino Laliga · 2021 | 25 | €40.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Wilfred Ndidi Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €60.0M | €25.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2023 | Man City | Chelsea | €47.0M | €18.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Man City U23 | Man City | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Man City U18 | Man City U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Man City Youth | Man City U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.