Enzo Fernández
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Enzo Fernández's performance-implied value at EUR 45.9M-75.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 56.1M-113.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 57.8M-99.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.25x the positional average in the league (3121 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 97.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €84.8M vs market €90.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3121 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.40
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.27
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 98 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1615
- Opponent strength
- 1588
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €57.8M – €99.7M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-84 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -29% (IQR -55% to -1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CM | 36 | 3121 | 91% | 10 | 4 | 0.40 | 0.27 | 1588 | 1615 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CM | 36 | 2949 | 86% | 6 | 7 | 0.40 | 0.27 | 1555 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | CM | 28 | 2215 | 65% | 3 | 2 | 0.20 | 0.19 | 1592 | 1629 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | DM | 18 | 1551 | 45% | 0 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 1563 | 1579 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | CM | 17 | 1389 | 45% | 1 | 5 | 0.39 | 0.16 | 1360 | 1718 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 10 | 748 | 3 | 2 | 1668 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Argentina | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 3 | 141 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Chelsea FC | 2 | 96 | 0 | 1 | 1461 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 5 | 446 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 5 | 429 | 0 | 2 | 1639 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 4 | 360 | 2 | 0 | 1478 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 4 | 334 | 0 | 0 | 1743 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Declan Rice Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €90.0M | €120M | rose |
| Douglas Luiz Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €70.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg Premier League · 2023 | 28 | €45.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Bruno Guimarães Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €70.0M | €80.0M | flat |
| Youri Tielemans Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €55.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Granit Xhaka Premier League · 2018 | 26 | €40.0M | €24.0M | fell |
| Martin Ødegaard Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €90.0M | €85.0M | flat |
| Bruno Fernandes Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €90.0M | €75.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2023 | Benfica | Chelsea | €121M | €55.0M |
| 14 Jul 2022 | River Plate | Benfica | €44.3M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | River Plate II | River Plate | Unknown | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Defensa | River Plate II | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 22 Aug 2020 | River Plate II | Defensa | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | River Plate U20 | River Plate II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.