Yanis Begraoui
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Yanis Begraoui's performance-implied value at EUR 1.9M-7.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.8M-17.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.2M-18.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.42x the positional average in the league (2726 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 17
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 52.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €13.0M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -20% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2726 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.73
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.72
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1305
- Opponent strength
- 1333
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.2M – €18.5M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 26 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -47% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | ST | 34 | 2726 | 89% | 20 | 2 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 1333 | 1305 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | ST | 34 | 1927 | 63% | 11 | 3 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 1342 | 1302 | 0.51 |
| 2023/24 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | ST | 14 | 298 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.48 | 1461 | 1437 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | FC Toulouse | Ligue 1 | RW | 3 | 63 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 1485 | 1347 | 0.82 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | FC Toulouse | 3 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1656 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa Mujica Liga Portugal · 2024 | 26 | €8.0M | €8.0M | flat |
| Jota Silva Liga Portugal · 2024 | 25 | €12.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Kévin Denkey Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 24 | €16.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Roman Yaremchuk Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €15.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Brandley Kuwas Eredivisie · 2018 | 26 | €4.5M | €2.8M | fell |
| Paul Onuachu Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 27 | €20.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Björn Johnsen Eredivisie · 2018 | 27 | €3.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Samuel Lino Liga Portugal · 2022 | 23 | €7.0M | €30.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Toulouse | Estoril | Unknown | €900k |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Pau FC | Toulouse | Free / loan | €900k |
| 11 Jan 2024 | Toulouse | Pau FC | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Pau FC | Toulouse | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 29 Jan 2023 | Toulouse | Pau FC | Free / loan | €500k |
| 6 Aug 2021 | AJ Auxerre | Toulouse | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | AJ Auxerre U19 | AJ Auxerre | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | CS Brétigny U17 | AJ Auxerre U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Bretigny Yth. | CS Brétigny U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | FC Etampes Jgd | Bretigny Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.