Mateusz Legowski
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mateusz Legowski's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-3.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.92x the positional average in the league (1565 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 77
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 17.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1565 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.17
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.20
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 18 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1204
- Opponent strength
- 1264
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €965k – €3.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +37% (IQR -8% to +75%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1565 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 35 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 77%–144%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 69%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | CM | 26 | 1565 | 51% | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.20 | 1264 | 1204 | 0.40 |
| 2023/24 | US Salernitana 1919 | Serie A | DM | 29 | 1132 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1564 | 1255 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | US Salernitana 1919 | 2 | 167 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Pogon Szczecin | 3 | 118 | 0 | 0 | 1346 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atakan Çankaya Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €1.4M | €1.3M | flat |
| Mithat Pala Super Lig · 2024 | 24 | €1.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Kartal Yılmaz Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €1.2M | €2.6M | rose |
| Abdelkahar Kadri Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €2.0M | €2.5M | rose |
| Yusuf Özdemir Super Lig · 2023 | 22 | €1.6M | €2.6M | rose |
| Armin Gigovic Superliga · 2023 | 21 | €2.0M | €3.0M | rose |
| Kristijan Bistrovic Super Lig · 2022 | 24 | €2.2M | €2.0M | flat |
| David Tijanic Super Lig · 2022 | 25 | €1.4M | €900k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Eyüpspor | Without Club | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 10 Sept 2025 | Salernitana | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Yverdon Sport | Salernitana | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 9 Sept 2024 | Salernitana | Yverdon Sport | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 17 Aug 2023 | Pogon Szczecin | Salernitana | €3.0M | €1.8M |
| 27 Jan 2021 | Pogon II | Pogon Szczecin | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Pogon U19 | Pogon II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Valencia U19 | Pogon U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 14 Aug 2019 | Pogon U19 | Valencia U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Oct 2018 | Pogon Youth | Pogon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.