Ivan Smolcic
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ivan Smolcic's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-9.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.8M-4.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.0M-6.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 77
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 59.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.8M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +6% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1665 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 60 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1525
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.0M – €6.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 30 pts; team strength up (+128 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +1% (IQR -42% to +66%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Limited sample: 1665 league minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Como 1907 | Serie A | RB | 28 | 1665 | 49% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.10 | 1525 | 1589 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Como 1907 | Serie A | RB | 9 | 629 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 1593 | 1461 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Como 1907 | 4 | 235 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | HNK Rijeka | 3 | 192 | 0 | 0 | 1417 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | HNK Rijeka | 2 | 125 | 0 | 0 | 1420 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bouna Sarr Ligue 1 · 2018 | 26 | €6.0M | €6.5M | flat |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson Ligue 1 · 2024 | 25 | €5.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Sergey Petrov Premier Liga · 2015 | 24 | €3.0M | €2.8M | flat |
| Giulio Donati Bundesliga · 2016 | 26 | €2.0M | €3.5M | rose |
| Leo Østigård Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €8.0M | €13.0M | rose |
| Maxime Poundjé Ligue 1 · 2018 | 26 | €4.5M | €2.4M | fell |
| Paulo Otávio Bundesliga · 2021 | 27 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Théo Pellenard Ligue 1 · 2018 | 24 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | HNK Rijeka | Como | €1.6M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Hrv Dragovoljac | HNK Rijeka | Free / loan | €300k |
| 27 Jan 2022 | HNK Rijeka | Hrv Dragovoljac | Free / loan | €50k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | NK Orijent 1919 | HNK Rijeka | Free / loan | €150k |
| 9 Aug 2019 | HNK Rijeka U19 | NK Orijent 1919 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | HNK Rijeka U17 | HNK Rijeka U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | HNK Rijeka Jgd | HNK Rijeka U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 7 Feb 2014 | NK Gospic 91 | HNK Rijeka Jgd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.