Sebastian Nanasi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sebastian Nanasi's performance-implied value at EUR 4.4M-14.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.2M-19.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.8M-19.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.20x the positional average in the league (1047 minutes, league coefficient 0.88). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 20
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 70.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €14.3M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1047 (34% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.77
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.48
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1502
- Opponent strength
- 1420
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.8M – €19.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 35 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +28% (IQR +15% to +46%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1047 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | AM | 19 | 1047 | 34% | 7 | 2 | 0.77 | 0.48 | 1420 | 1502 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | RC Strasbourg Alsace | Ligue 1 | AM | 31 | 2124 | 69% | 6 | 4 | 0.42 | 0.48 | 1447 | 1506 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | RC Strasbourg Alsace | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1350 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Malmö Fotbollförening | 4 | 331 | 3 | 1 | 1492 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yusuf Yazıcı Ligue 1 · 2020 | 23 | €13.0M | €17.0M | rose |
| Amine Harit Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Wylan Cyprien Ligue 1 · 2018 | 23 | €10.0M | €14.5M | rose |
| Roberto Gagliardini Serie A · 2019 | 25 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Marcelo Brozović Serie A · 2017 | 25 | €20.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Kristian Thorstvedt Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €7.5M | €9.0M | rose |
| Jeff Reine-Adélaïde Ligue 1 · 2020 | 22 | €22.5M | €14.0M | fell |
| Maxime Lopez Ligue 1 · 2020 | 23 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Aug 2024 | Malmö | R. Strasbourg | €11.0M | €8.0M |
| 30 Nov 2022 | Kalmar FF | Malmö | Free / loan | €800k |
| 20 Jul 2022 | Malmö | Kalmar FF | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Nov 2020 | Varbergs BoIS | Malmö | Free / loan | €100k |
| 2 Jun 2020 | Malmö | Varbergs BoIS | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jun 2020 | Malmö FF U19 | Malmö | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 12 Aug 2018 | Kristianstad FC | Malmö FF U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2018 | Kristianst. U19 | Kristianstad FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.