Marcus Bundgaard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marcus Bundgaard's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 85
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 8.8th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €641k vs market €850k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1770 (89% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 9 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1242
- Opponent strength
- 1281
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €570k – €2.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 67 pts; team strength up (+181 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -51% to +19%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1770 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 67 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–125%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | GK | 20 | 1770 | 89% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1281 | 1242 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Sönderjyske Fodbold | Superliga | GK | 5 | 450 | 23% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1352 | 1062 | 0.38 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolay Sysuev Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €900k | €400k | fell |
| Okan Kocuk Super Lig · 2022 | 27 | €1.1M | €1.0M | flat |
| Thomas Didillon-Hödl Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 26 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Sokratis Dioudis Super League 1 · 2019 | 26 | €900k | €1.5M | rose |
| Erdem Canpolat Super Lig · 2024 | 23 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Bilal Bayazıt Super Lig · 2023 | 24 | €1.7M | €2.0M | flat |
| Kostas Lamprou Eredivisie · 2015 | 24 | €1.0M | €1.3M | rose |
| Oleg Bilyk Premier Liga · 2022 | 24 | €400k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Feb 2025 | Elfsborg | Sönderjyske | €500k | €350k |
| 14 Mar 2024 | Vendsyssel FF | Elfsborg | €340k | €400k |
| 31 Jan 2022 | Jammerbugt FC | Vendsyssel FF | Unknown | €150k |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Aalborg BK U19 | Jammerbugt FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Aalborg BK Yth. | Aalborg BK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.