Jayden Oosterwolde
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jayden Oosterwolde's performance-implied value at EUR 1.5M-7.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.1M-27.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.5M-25.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €20.4M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2626 (86% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.01
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1477
- Opponent strength
- 1262
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.5M – €25.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 64 pts; role change LB -> CB; relative output down 51% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -53% to +1%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CB | 31 | 2626 | 86% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1262 | 1477 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | LB | 8 | 706 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1285 | 1503 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | CB | 27 | 1912 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1300 | 1583 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | LB | 3 | 84 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1313 | 1516 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | LB | 26 | 1951 | 64% | 1 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.18 | 1347 | 1251 | 0.56 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 8 | 720 | 0 | 1 | 1487 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1613 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 4 | 388 | 0 | 0 | 1463 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1495 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 4 | 294 | 1 | 0 | 1465 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1549 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Parma Calcio 1913 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanley Nsoki Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 23 | €7.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Alexis Duarte Premier Liga · 2024 | 24 | €3.5M | €1.8M | fell |
| Koki Machida Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 27 | €10.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Douglas Premier Liga · 2015 | 25 | €5.5M | €5.0M | flat |
| Nuraly Alip Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ferro Liga Portugal · 2020 | 23 | €14.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| Panagiotis Retsos Super League 1 · 2024 | 26 | €2.5M | €7.0M | rose |
| Léo Duarte Super Lig · 2022 | 26 | €2.2M | €3.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 2023 | Parma | Fenerbahçe | €6.0M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | FC Twente | Parma | €3.3M | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Parma | FC Twente | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 31 Jan 2022 | FC Twente | Parma | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 20 Jul 2020 | FC Twente U19 | FC Twente | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FC Twente U17 | FC Twente U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FC Twente Youth | FC Twente U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.