Luciano Valente
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luciano Valente's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-4.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.2M-27.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 10.0M-27.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.83x the positional average in the league (2552 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 29
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 46.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €20.4M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 23% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2552 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.32
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 47 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1304
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 23%
- Resale range (24m)
- €10.0M – €27.8M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+226 Elo); role change AM -> CM; relative output down 28% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +43% (IQR +31% to +57%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 53 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–148%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Eredivisie | CM | 32 | 2552 | 83% | 2 | 7 | 0.32 | 0.18 | 1304 | 1423 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | AM | 32 | 2610 | 85% | 2 | 7 | 0.31 | 0.45 | 1312 | 1197 | 0.50 |
| 2022/23 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | CM | 20 | 872 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 1351 | 1146 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 8 | 597 | 0 | 2 | 1460 |
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Feyenoord Rotterdam | 2 | 45 | 0 | 0 | 1499 |
| 2024/25 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 1 | 31 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 2 | 167 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Taylor Eredivisie · 2024 | 22 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Sebastian Szymanski Premier Liga · 2022 | 23 | €14.0M | €19.0M | rose |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 22 | €12.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Sven Mijnans Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €6.5M | €15.0M | rose |
| Evander Superliga · 2021 | 23 | €6.0M | €9.0M | rose |
| Yusuf Yazıcı Super Lig · 2019 | 22 | €13.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Frank Onyeka Superliga · 2021 | 23 | €6.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| İrfan Can Kahveci Super Lig · 2020 | 25 | €7.0M | €8.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2025 | FC Groningen | Feyenoord | €6.8M | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Groningen U21 | FC Groningen | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Groningen U18 | Groningen U21 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Groningen U17 | Groningen U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Groningen Youth | Groningen U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | GVAV Yth. | Groningen Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.