Samuel Dahl
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Samuel Dahl's performance-implied value at EUR 4.8M-18.1M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.4M-19.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 9.9M-28.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 56
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 75.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €14.6M vs market €13.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +19% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2863 (94% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.06
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 75 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1634
- Opponent strength
- 1319
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €9.9M – €28.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 75 pts; role change LM -> LB; relative output down 60% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -9% (IQR -26% to +12%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LB | 33 | 2863 | 94% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1319 | 1634 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LM | 11 | 591 | 19% | 0 | 4 | 0.61 | 0.20 | 1246 | 1632 | 0.51 |
| 2024/25 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | LM | 2 | 41 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 1558 | 1668 | 0.99 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 9 | 789 | 1 | 0 | 1652 |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 4 | 360 | 0 | 1 | 1510 |
| 2025/26 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 3 | 155 | 0 | 0 | 1769 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Djurgårdens Idrottsförening | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1323 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Teze Eredivisie · 2021 | 22 | €7.5M | €6.0M | fell |
| Calvin Bassey Scottish Premiership · 2022 | 22 | €10.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Ferro Liga Portugal · 2020 | 23 | €14.5M | €3.5M | fell |
| João Mário Liga Portugal · 2022 | 22 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Noussair Mazraoui Eredivisie · 2019 | 22 | €18.0M | €17.0M | flat |
| Leonardo Balerdi Ligue 1 · 2023 | 24 | €10.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Davit Khocholava Premier Liga · 2019 | 26 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Carlos Cuesta Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 24 | €8.0M | €7.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | Roma | Benfica | €8.6M | €7.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Benfica | Roma | Free / loan | €7.0M |
| 3 Feb 2025 | Roma | Benfica | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 28 Jul 2024 | Djurgården | Roma | €5.7M | €3.0M |
| 24 Jul 2023 | Örebro SK | Djurgården | Unknown | €450k |
| 25 Feb 2022 | AIK U19 | Örebro SK | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | AIK U17 | AIK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Västerås SK U17 | AIK U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 30 Nov 2019 | Västerås IK | Västerås SK U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2019 | Västerås SK U17 | Västerås IK | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.