Jonas Urbig
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jonas Urbig's performance-implied value at EUR 8.2M-17.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 13.5M-26.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.0M-44.5M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 68
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 81th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €18.9M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +25% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 31% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1110 (36% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 81 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1871
- Opponent strength
- 1444
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 31%
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.0M – €44.5M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+99 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -30% (IQR -51% to +69%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1110 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | GK | 14 | 1110 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1444 | 1871 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | GK | 8 | 720 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1453 | 1772 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1654 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 4 | 302 | 0 | 0 | 1801 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andriy Lunin Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €25.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Marc-André ter Stegen Laliga · 2016 | 24 | €15.0M | €60.0M | rose |
| Loris Karius Premier League · 2018 | 25 | €12.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Caoimhín Kelleher Premier League · 2024 | 26 | €20.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Iñaki Peña Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €8.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Neto Serie A · 2017 | 28 | €6.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Arnau Tenas Ligue 1 · 2024 | 23 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Alphonse Areola Laliga · 2020 | 27 | €13.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jan 2025 | 1.FC Köln | Bayern Munich | €7.0M | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Greuther Fürth | 1.FC Köln | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 5 Jul 2023 | 1.FC Köln | Greuther Fürth | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | J. Regensburg | 1.FC Köln | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 6 Jan 2023 | 1.FC Köln | J. Regensburg | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | 1.FC Köln U19 | 1.FC Köln | Unknown | €300k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | 1.FC Köln U17 | 1.FC Köln U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | 1.FC Köln Yth. | 1.FC Köln U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2012 | 1.JFS Köln Jgd. | 1.FC Köln Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.