Merlin Röhl
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Merlin Röhl's performance-implied value at EUR 9.1M-31.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.7M-22.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.7M-23.5M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.82x the positional average in the league (743 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 82.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 24 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.0M vs market €16.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -14% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 743 (22% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.33
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1556
- Opponent strength
- 1625
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.7M – €23.5M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; league level up (+115 Elo); relative output up 48% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -23% (IQR -48% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 743 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Everton FC | Premier League | AM | 16 | 678 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.33 | 1625 | 1556 | 1.30 |
| 2025/26 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | SS | 2 | 65 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 1385 | 1551 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | AM | 19 | 967 | 32% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.22 | 1509 | 1505 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CM | 24 | 1484 | 48% | 2 | 4 | 0.36 | 0.27 | 1514 | 1481 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CM | 3 | 53 | 2% | 0 | 1 | 1.70 | 0.26 | 1566 | 1561 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 86 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | SC Freiburg | 8 | 328 | 1 | 0 | 1540 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 57 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | FC Ingolstadt 04 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Sambi Lokonga Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| João Gomes Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €18.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Carles Aleñá Laliga · 2020 | 22 | €18.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Nicolò Zaniolo Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €20.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Andreas Pereira Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €10.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Dennis Praet Premier League · 2021 | 27 | €18.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Kenedy Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Jakub Moder Premier League · 2021 | 22 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Freiburg | Everton | €25.0M | €16.0M |
| 30 Jun 2026 | Everton | Freiburg | Free / loan | €16.0M |
| 1 Sept 2025 | Freiburg | Everton | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 17 Aug 2022 | FC Ingolstadt | Freiburg | €2.9M | €800k |
| 23 Nov 2020 | Ingolstadt U19 | FC Ingolstadt | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Ingolstadt U17 | Ingolstadt U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Babelsberg U17 | Ingolstadt U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Babelsberg Yth. | Babelsberg U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.