Jens Castrop
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jens Castrop's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-6.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.7M-14.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.5M-19.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.08x the positional average in the league (1594 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 44
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 47.5th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €11.3M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1594 (52% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.23
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.24
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 48 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1423
- Opponent strength
- 1486
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.5M – €19.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -41% to +119%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1594 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | LM | 26 | 1594 | 52% | 3 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 1486 | 1422 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | World Cup | South Korea | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josha Vagnoman Bundesliga · 2023 | 23 | €8.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Bruno Fernandes Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €7.5M | €55.0M | rose |
| Nedim Bajrami Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €7.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Gastón Ramírez Premier League · 2013 | 23 | €13.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Seko Fofana Serie A · 2018 | 23 | €9.5M | €9.5M | flat |
| Nahuel Molina Serie A · 2021 | 23 | €7.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Valentino Lazaro Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €9.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Amir Richardson Ligue 1 · 2024 | 22 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | 1.FC Nuremberg | Mönchengladbach | €4.5M | €6.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | 1.FC Köln II | 1.FC Nuremberg | €900k | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | 1.FC Nuremberg | 1.FC Köln II | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 7 Jan 2022 | 1.FC Köln II | 1.FC Nuremberg | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | 1.FC Köln U19 | 1.FC Köln II | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | 1.FC Köln U17 | 1.FC Köln U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | 1.FC Köln Yth. | 1.FC Köln U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Düsseldorf Yth. | 1.FC Köln Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.