Mario Gila
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Mario Gila's performance-implied value at EUR 7.4M-24.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 21.0M-38.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.0M-36.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 28
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 84.6th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €27.8M vs market €30.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -22% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2482 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1522
- Opponent strength
- 1514
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €16.0M – €36.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-84 Elo); relative output down 48% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +13% (IQR -27% to +36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 31 | 2482 | 73% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1514 | 1522 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 32 | 2743 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1495 | 1606 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 21 | 1813 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1465 | 1580 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | CB | 4 | 87 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1385 | 1578 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 347 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 10 | 527 | 1 | 0 | 1568 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 351 | 0 | 0 | 1708 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 3 | 215 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1802 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 5 | 426 | 0 | 0 | 1416 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhon Lucumí Serie A · 2024 | 26 | €17.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Dani Vivian Laliga · 2024 | 25 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Gianluca Mancini Serie A · 2022 | 26 | €21.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Konstantinos Manolas Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €17.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Karim Rekik Bundesliga · 2019 | 25 | €15.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Stefan Posch Bundesliga · 2021 | 24 | €13.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Stefan de Vrij Serie A · 2015 | 23 | €17.0M | €27.0M | rose |
| Yeray Álvarez Laliga · 2020 | 25 | €24.0M | €13.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Jul 2022 | RM Castilla | Lazio | €6.0M | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Real Madrid U19 | RM Castilla | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Espanyol U19 | Real Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | CF Damm Youth | Espanyol U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.