Malo Gusto
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Malo Gusto's performance-implied value at EUR 33.7M-44.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 21.9M-46.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 23.0M-42.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 17
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 93.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €36.1M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2268 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.20
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1615
- Opponent strength
- 1598
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €23.0M – €42.6M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-84 Elo); relative output up 159% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -61% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RB | 34 | 2268 | 66% | 2 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.17 | 1598 | 1615 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RB | 32 | 1858 | 54% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 1557 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | RB | 27 | 1756 | 51% | 0 | 6 | 0.31 | 0.24 | 1552 | 1629 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | RB | 21 | 1600 | 47% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1431 | 1549 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | RB | 30 | 1880 | 55% | 0 | 4 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 1406 | 1587 | 0.86 |
| 2020/21 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | RB | 2 | 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1358 | 1587 | 0.75 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 7 | 476 | 1 | 1 | 1683 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 3 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | France | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Chelsea FC | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1465 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 5 | 410 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 7 | 445 | 0 | 1 | 1556 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Dalot Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €40.0M | €30.0M | fell |
| Timothy Castagne Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €28.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Antonio Rüdiger Premier League · 2018 | 25 | €40.0M | €40.0M | flat |
| Kieran Tierney Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €32.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Mario Hermoso Laliga · 2019 | 24 | €25.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Unai Núñez Laliga · 2021 | 24 | €20.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Sergio Reguilón Premier League · 2021 | 25 | €25.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Matty Cash Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €22.0M | €25.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2023 | Lyon | Chelsea | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 30 Jan 2023 | Chelsea | Lyon | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 29 Jan 2023 | Lyon | Chelsea | €30.0M | €15.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Olymp. Lyon B | Lyon | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Olymp. Lyon B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Ol. Lyon Yth. | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Bourgoin Jugend | Ol. Lyon Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.