Matty Cash
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matty Cash's performance-implied value at EUR 31.4M-50.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.3M-22.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.8M-12.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 10
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 98.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €14.5M vs market €22.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -56% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3022 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.18
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1721
- Opponent strength
- 1576
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.8M – €12.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 28 pts; relative output up 64% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -42% to -24%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Aston Villa | Premier League | RB | 35 | 3022 | 88% | 3 | 3 | 0.18 | 0.16 | 1576 | 1721 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Aston Villa | Premier League | RB | 27 | 2077 | 61% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1579 | 1695 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Aston Villa | Premier League | RB | 29 | 2143 | 63% | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1541 | 1586 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Aston Villa | Premier League | RB | 26 | 1821 | 53% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 1559 | 1625 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Aston Villa | Premier League | RB | 38 | 3380 | 99% | 4 | 3 | 0.19 | 0.19 | 1582 | 1520 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Aston Villa | Premier League | RB | 28 | 2378 | 70% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 1580 | 1517 | 1.19 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Aston Villa | 11 | 741 | 0 | 2 | 1552 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Aston Villa | 8 | 515 | 0 | 1 | 1662 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 3 | 243 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 3 | 262 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aston Villa | 2 | 60 | 1 | 0 | 1222 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 71 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Aston Villa | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Rüdiger Premier League · 2022 | 29 | €40.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Gary Cahill Premier League · 2014 | 29 | €19.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Daniel Carvajal Laliga · 2020 | 28 | €40.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Andrew Robertson Premier League · 2023 | 29 | €40.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Laurent Koscielny Premier League · 2016 | 31 | €22.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Fabian Schär Premier League · 2023 | 32 | €10.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Pablo Zabaleta Premier League · 2014 | 29 | €19.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Luke Shaw Premier League · 2021 | 26 | €35.0M | €42.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Sept 2020 | Nott'm Forest | Aston Villa | €15.8M | €4.8M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Nottingham U18 | Nott'm Forest | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 31 May 2016 | Dag & Red FC | Nottingham U18 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 4 Mar 2016 | Nottingham U18 | Dag & Red FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.