João Pedro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates João Pedro's performance-implied value at EUR 40.1M-69.3M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 61.2M-110.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 53.2M-98.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (2674 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 13
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 97.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €89.9M vs market €80.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2674 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.77
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.53
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1615
- Opponent strength
- 1590
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €53.2M – €98.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 21 pts; changed club.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -28% (IQR -44% to +3%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | ST | 35 | 2674 | 78% | 15 | 8 | 0.77 | 0.53 | 1590 | 1615 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | ST | 27 | 1953 | 57% | 10 | 6 | 0.74 | 0.60 | 1548 | 1614 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | ST | 31 | 2047 | 60% | 9 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 1578 | 1520 | 1.14 |
| 2021/22 | Watford FC | Premier League | ST | 28 | 1638 | 48% | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.51 | 1586 | 1329 | 1.17 |
| 2019/20 | Watford FC | Premier League | LW | 3 | 22 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 1518 | 1433 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 8 | 532 | 3 | 0 | 1681 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 3 | 186 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 3 | 183 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 437 | 6 | 0 | 1495 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2 | 173 | 5 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Watford FC | 1 | 74 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Watford FC | 2 | 126 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Isak Premier League · 2024 | 25 | €75.0M | €85.0M | flat |
| Harry Kane Premier League · 2020 | 27 | €120M | €90.0M | fell |
| Allan Saint-Maximin Premier League · 2022 | 25 | €32.0M | €18.0M | fell |
| Anthony Martial Premier League · 2020 | 25 | €48.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Harvey Barnes Premier League · 2023 | 26 | €35.0M | €35.0M | flat |
| Gabriel Martinelli Premier League · 2023 | 22 | €80.0M | €55.0M | fell |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €45.0M | €25.0M | fell |
| Nicolas Jackson Premier League · 2024 | 23 | €35.0M | €40.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2025 | Brighton | Chelsea | €63.7M | €50.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Watford | Brighton | €34.2M | €32.0M |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Fluminense | Watford | €11.5M | €20.0M |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Fluminense U17 | Fluminense | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.