Gabriel Silva
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gabriel Silva's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-2.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.4M-7.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.6M-10.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.90x the positional average in the league (2245 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 89
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 36th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €3.2M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2245 (73% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 36 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1276
- Opponent strength
- 1325
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.6M – €10.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -41% to +22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | LW | 29 | 2245 | 73% | 6 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.37 | 1325 | 1275 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | LW | 33 | 2799 | 91% | 6 | 4 | 0.32 | 0.48 | 1335 | 1276 | 0.51 |
| 2022/23 | CD Santa Clara | Liga Portugal | RW | 33 | 2195 | 72% | 5 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.48 | 1395 | 1208 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | CD Santa Clara | 6 | 410 | 3 | 1 | 1297 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ömer Ali Şahiner Super Lig · 2017 | 25 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mimoun Mahi Eredivisie · 2018 | 24 | €4.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Wout Weghorst Eredivisie · 2017 | 25 | €2.8M | €20.0M | rose |
| Chidera Ejuke Premier Liga · 2021 | 23 | €8.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Roy Beerens Eredivisie · 2013 | 26 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
| Rémi Oudin Ligue 1 · 2021 | 25 | €7.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Roman Ezhov Premier Liga · 2023 | 26 | €2.0M | €1.8M | flat |
| Carlo Holse Super Lig · 2024 | 25 | €3.2M | €7.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2023 | Palmeiras | Santa Clara | €1.5M | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Santa Clara | Palmeiras | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 18 Jul 2022 | Palmeiras | Santa Clara | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Palmeiras U20 | Palmeiras | Unknown | €2.5M |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.