Alejandro Balde
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alejandro Balde's performance-implied value at EUR 22.7M-60.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 36.3M-68.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 26.9M-60.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 22
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 94.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €54.0M vs market €50.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -15% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 8% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1875 (55% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.10
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 95 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1787
- Opponent strength
- 1478
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 8%
- Resale range (24m)
- €26.9M – €60.6M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 41% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -34% to +42%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | LB | 28 | 1875 | 55% | 0 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1478 | 1787 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | LB | 32 | 2293 | 67% | 0 | 4 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 1509 | 1792 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | LB | 18 | 1378 | 40% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1475 | 1723 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | LB | 33 | 2476 | 72% | 1 | 6 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 1505 | 1696 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | FC Barcelona | Laliga | LB | 5 | 188 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1476 | 1686 | 1.05 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 8 | 525 | 0 | 1 | 1560 |
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 4 | 252 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | 1654 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 10 | 804 | 0 | 4 | 1647 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 3 | 225 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 173 | 1 | 1 | 1751 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 6 | 329 | 0 | 0 | 1583 |
| 2023/24 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1625 |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 2 | 113 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | FC Barcelona | 4 | 264 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 4 | 167 | 0 | 0 | 1752 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | FC Barcelona | 2 | 113 | 0 | 1 | 1696 |
| 2022/23 | Supercopa | FC Barcelona | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1826 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | FC Barcelona | 2 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1860 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphonso Davies Bundesliga · 2022 | 22 | €70.0M | €50.0M | fell |
| Odilon Kossounou Bundesliga · 2024 | 23 | €35.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Presnel Kimpembe Ligue 1 · 2019 | 24 | €30.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Marquinhos Ligue 1 · 2016 | 22 | €30.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Dayot Upamecano Bundesliga · 2024 | 26 | €45.0M | €70.0M | rose |
| Samuel Umtiti Laliga · 2018 | 25 | €60.0M | €32.0M | fell |
| Nuno Mendes Ligue 1 · 2022 | 20 | €40.0M | €55.0M | rose |
| Matthijs de Ligt Serie A · 2021 | 22 | €75.0M | €75.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | Barça Atlètic | Barcelona | Unknown | €4.0M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Barça U19 | Barcelona B | Unknown | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Barça U16 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.