Gavi

The model rates Gavi's performance-implied value at EUR 13.9M-49.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 20.9M-42.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 16.1M-44.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.52x the positional average in the league (574 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

574 (17% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.16

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.11

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

85 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.95 (rank 2)

Team strength (Elo)

1787

Opponent strength

1508

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

High

Trajectory

declining

Breakout probability

14%

Resale range (24m)

€16.1M – €44.9M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +20% (IQR +7% to +34%).

• ▲Small sample: 574 league minutes last season.
• ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
• ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.