Nicolas Seiwald
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Nicolas Seiwald's performance-implied value at EUR 5.6M-24.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 19.4M-32.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 13.7M-34.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.52x the positional average in the league (2704 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 30
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €25.4M vs market €25.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2704 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1568
- Opponent strength
- 1494
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €13.7M – €34.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; relative output up 108% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR -24% to +21%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | DM | 33 | 2704 | 88% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1494 | 1568 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | DM | 30 | 2080 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1486 | 1533 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CM | 21 | 707 | 23% | 0 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.15 | 1510 | 1692 | 1.01 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4 | 342 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Austria | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 7 | 405 | 0 | 1 | 1624 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 4 | 271 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 4 | 272 | 0 | 0 | 1777 |
| 2023/24 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | RB Leipzig | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1817 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 1 | 65 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djibril Sow Bundesliga · 2023 | 26 | €22.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Youssouf Fofana Ligue 1 · 2023 | 24 | €25.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Bryan Cristante Serie A · 2022 | 27 | €20.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Manuel Locatelli Serie A · 2023 | 25 | €30.0M | €30.0M | flat |
| Salis Abdul Samed Ligue 1 · 2023 | 23 | €18.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Kevin Kampl Bundesliga · 2017 | 27 | €15.0M | €22.0M | rose |
| Maximilian Eggestein Bundesliga · 2023 | 27 | €10.0M | €10.0M | flat |
| Piotr Zielinski Serie A · 2020 | 26 | €32.0M | €40.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Salzburg | Leipzig | €20.0M | €20.0M |
| 1 Aug 2020 | FC Liefering | Salzburg | Unknown | €700k |
| 1 Jan 2019 | AKA Salzb. U18 | FC Liefering | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | AKA Salzb. U16 | AKA Salzb. U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | AKA Salzb. U15 | AKA Salzb. U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Salzburg Youth | AKA Salzb. U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.