Evan Ferguson

The model rates Evan Ferguson's performance-implied value at EUR 10.6M-29.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.3M-27.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.1M-37.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.80x the positional average in the league (776 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

776 (23% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.58

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.41

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

80 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

0.93 (rank 4)

Team strength (Elo)

1638

Opponent strength

1489

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

High

Trajectory

insufficient

Breakout probability

8%

Resale range (24m)

€11.1M – €37.0M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -19% (IQR -52% to +29%).

• ▲Small sample: 776 league minutes last season.
• ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
• ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.