Ilya Zabarnyi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ilya Zabarnyi's performance-implied value at EUR 40.3M-79.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 28.8M-56.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 23.8M-51.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €42.5M vs market €40.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -2% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2387 (78% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1818
- Opponent strength
- 1432
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €23.8M – €51.3M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+235 Elo); league level down (-126 Elo); relative output down 47% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -6% (IQR -21% to +31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | CB | 28 | 2387 | 78% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 1432 | 1817 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 36 | 3114 | 91% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1575 | 1582 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1584 | 1496 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | CB | 14 | 1239 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1261 | 1433 | 0.38 |
| 2022/23 | AFC Bournemouth | Premier League | CB | 5 | 297 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1537 | 1425 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | CB | 15 | 1316 | 81% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1302 | 1532 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | Dynamo Kyiv | Premier Liga | CB | 21 | 1846 | 79% | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 1293 | 1563 | 0.49 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 198 | 0 | 0 | 1697 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 216 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 600 | 0 | 0 | 1472 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Dynamo Kyiv | 5 | 428 | 0 | 0 | 1533 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1759 |
| 2021/22 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Dynamo Kyiv | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1616 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Dynamo Kyiv | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Dynamo Kyiv | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1499 |
| 2020/21 | Ukrainian Cup | Dynamo Kyiv | 2 | 240 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmond Tapsoba Bundesliga · 2024 | 25 | €45.0M | €35.0M | fell |
| Elseid Hysaj Serie A · 2018 | 24 | €25.0M | €13.0M | fell |
| Juan Bernat Bundesliga · 2015 | 22 | €20.0M | €16.0M | fell |
| Castello Lukeba Bundesliga · 2024 | 22 | €40.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Dayot Upamecano Bundesliga · 2023 | 25 | €60.0M | €50.0M | flat |
| Samuel Umtiti Laliga · 2017 | 24 | €30.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Nicolás Otamendi Liga Portugal · 2013 | 25 | €12.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Rúben Dias Premier League · 2021 | 24 | €75.0M | €80.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2025 | Bournemouth | PSG | €63.0M | €42.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Dynamo Kyiv | Bournemouth | €33.0M | €15.0M |
| 3 Aug 2020 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Dynamo Kyiv | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2020 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Dynamo Kyiv II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Dynamo Kyiv U17 | Dynamo Kyiv U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.