Castello Lukeba
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Castello Lukeba's performance-implied value at EUR 8.7M-34.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 38.4M-64.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 24.5M-58.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 6
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €53.4M vs market €50.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -35% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2177 (71% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 82 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1568
- Opponent strength
- 1515
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €24.5M – €58.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 20 pts; relative output up 83% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +3% (IQR -26% to +61%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CB | 26 | 2177 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1515 | 1568 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CB | 23 | 1578 | 52% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1474 | 1533 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2185 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 1493 | 1692 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 34 | 2986 | 87% | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1442 | 1549 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | Olympique Lyon | Ligue 1 | CB | 24 | 2096 | 61% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 1411 | 1587 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 378 | 0 | 0 | 1722 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 3 | 61 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 7 | 620 | 0 | 0 | 1693 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 2 | 163 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Olympique Lyon | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1598 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Kalulu Serie A · 2023 | 23 | €30.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Juan Foyth Laliga · 2023 | 25 | €25.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Axel Disasi Ligue 1 · 2022 | 24 | €17.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Ferland Mendy Ligue 1 · 2019 | 24 | €30.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Mohamed Simakan Bundesliga · 2022 | 22 | €22.0M | €35.0M | rose |
| Diogo Leite Bundesliga · 2023 | 24 | €15.0M | €17.0M | flat |
| Çağlar Söyüncü Premier League · 2022 | 26 | €40.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Davide Calabria Serie A · 2021 | 25 | €25.0M | €20.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2023 | Lyon | Leipzig | €30.0M | €25.0M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Olymp. Lyon B | Lyon | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Olymp. Lyon B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Olymp. Lyon U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Ol. Lyon Yth. | Olymp. Lyon U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.