Equi Fernández
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Equi Fernández's performance-implied value at EUR 2.9M-13.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 15.0M-27.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 11.5M-33.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.59x the positional average in the league (987 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 25
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 66.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €21.9M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 987 (32% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.09
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1626
- Opponent strength
- 1503
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €11.5M – €33.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +5% (IQR -23% to +13%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 987 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | DM | 20 | 987 | 32% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 1503 | 1626 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 9 | 438 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 32 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Paquetá Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €22.5M | €35.0M | rose |
| Victor Moses Premier League · 2013 | 23 | €15.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Mahmoud Dahoud Bundesliga · 2019 | 23 | €14.0M | €16.0M | flat |
| Vanderson Ligue 1 · 2022 | 21 | €18.0M | €20.0M | flat |
| Weston McKennie Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €25.0M | €28.0M | flat |
| Fabio Miretti Serie A · 2024 | 21 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Xherdan Shaqiri Serie A · 2015 | 24 | €17.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Rafinha Serie A · 2018 | 25 | €28.0M | €9.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Al-Qadsiah | Leverkusen | €25.0M | €12.0M |
| 5 Aug 2024 | Boca Juniors | Al-Qadsiah | €18.7M | €14.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Boca Juniors II | Boca Juniors | Unknown | €5.0M |
| 31 Dec 2022 | Tigre | Boca Juniors II | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 12 Feb 2022 | Boca Juniors II | Tigre | Free / loan | €450k |
| 1 Jan 2020 | CABJ U20 | Boca Juniors II | Unknown | €500k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.