Vanderson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vanderson's performance-implied value at EUR 3.4M-9.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.7M-22.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.2M-21.9M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 65.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €16.1M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.88 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 613 (20% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.29
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 66 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.88 (rank 5)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1527
- Opponent strength
- 1480
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.2M – €21.9M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 48 pts; relative output up 31% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -31% (IQR -51% to +4%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 613 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | RB | 14 | 613 | 20% | 0 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.17 | 1480 | 1527 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | RB | 29 | 2073 | 68% | 1 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.13 | 1454 | 1571 | 0.88 |
| 2023/24 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | RM | 20 | 1649 | 54% | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 1487 | 1573 | 0.87 |
| 2022/23 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | RB | 31 | 2219 | 65% | 1 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 1417 | 1485 | 0.82 |
| 2021/22 | AS Monaco | Ligue 1 | RM | 17 | 1122 | 33% | 2 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.15 | 1411 | 1599 | 0.86 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 8 | 590 | 0 | 0 | 1676 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | AS Monaco | 9 | 781 | 0 | 2 | 1660 |
| 2024/25 | Trophee Des Champions | AS Monaco | 1 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1728 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 6 | 346 | 0 | 1 | 1455 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | AS Monaco | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1670 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | AS Monaco | 2 | 174 | 0 | 0 | 1464 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perr Schuurs Serie A · 2024 | 25 | €25.0M | €25.0M | flat |
| Mohammed Salisu Ligue 1 · 2024 | 25 | €15.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Juan Foyth Laliga · 2024 | 26 | €15.0M | €8.0M | fell |
| Sime Vrsaljko Serie A · 2019 | 27 | €20.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Mateo Musacchio Serie A · 2018 | 28 | €12.5M | €9.0M | fell |
| Loïc Badé Ligue 1 · 2022 | 22 | €12.0M | €14.0M | flat |
| Andreas Hanche-Olsen Bundesliga · 2024 | 27 | €9.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Thilo Kehrer Ligue 1 · 2024 | 28 | €10.0M | €12.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2022 | Grêmio | Monaco | €11.0M | €8.5M |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Grêmio B | Grêmio | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.