Carlos Álvarez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Carlos Álvarez's performance-implied value at EUR 2.7M-7.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.0M-19.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 7.9M-23.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (1898 minutes, league coefficient 0.95). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 86
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 55.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €9.3M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -7% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 15% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1898 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.42
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 55 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1420
- Opponent strength
- 1506
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 15%
- Resale range (24m)
- €7.9M – €23.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -60% to +54%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Levante UD | Laliga | AM | 30 | 1898 | 55% | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.42 | 1506 | 1420 | 0.95 |
| 2022/23 | Sevilla FC | Laliga | AM | 1 | 9 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1453 | 1583 | 0.98 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Sevilla FC | 2 | 89 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattéo Guendouzi Bundesliga · 2021 | 22 | €20.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Bruno Fernandes Serie A · 2017 | 23 | €7.5M | €55.0M | rose |
| Valentino Lazaro Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €9.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Aimar Oroz Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €15.0M | €15.0M | flat |
| Gastón Ramírez Premier League · 2013 | 23 | €13.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Samuele Ricci Serie A · 2023 | 22 | €20.0M | €30.0M | rose |
| Ivan Ilić Serie A · 2024 | 23 | €18.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Nedim Bajrami Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €7.5M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Aug 2023 | Sevilla Atl. | Levante | €1.0M | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sevilla FC U16 | Sevilla Atl. | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Altair U16 | Sevilla FC U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Sevilla FC Yth. | Altair U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.