Matías Soulé
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Matías Soulé's performance-implied value at EUR 22.5M-51.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 22.3M-43.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 22.6M-54.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.89x the positional average in the league (2162 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 55
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 88.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €33.2M vs market €35.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -1% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2162 (63% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.46
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.36
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 89 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1638
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €22.6M – €54.6M
Trajectory drivers: role change RW -> AM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -18% (IQR -53% to +51%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | AM | 33 | 2162 | 63% | 6 | 5 | 0.46 | 0.36 | 1495 | 1638 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | RW | 27 | 1792 | 52% | 5 | 5 | 0.50 | 0.41 | 1486 | 1668 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Frosinone Calcio | Serie A | RW | 36 | 3141 | 92% | 11 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.59 | 1486 | 1308 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Juventus FC | Serie A | RW | 13 | 420 | 12% | 1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 1468 | 1614 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 8 | 558 | 1 | 3 | 1487 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 11 | 404 | 0 | 0 | 1556 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Frosinone Calcio | 3 | 122 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 1 | 60 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 3 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1635 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Juventus FC | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1460 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brahim Díaz Serie A · 2023 | 24 | €20.0M | €40.0M | rose |
| Pedro Porro Premier League · 2023 | 24 | €40.0M | €38.0M | flat |
| Christopher Nkunku Bundesliga · 2021 | 24 | €43.0M | €80.0M | rose |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini Serie A · 2020 | 24 | €32.0M | €45.0M | rose |
| Ismaël Bennacer Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €40.0M | €15.0M | fell |
| Nordi Mukiele Bundesliga · 2022 | 25 | €20.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Rodrigo Bentancur Serie A · 2020 | 23 | €40.0M | €28.0M | fell |
| Angeliño Bundesliga · 2021 | 24 | €35.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jul 2024 | Juventus | Roma | €28.6M | €25.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Frosinone | Juventus | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 28 Aug 2023 | Juventus | Frosinone | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Juve Next Gen | Juventus | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Juventus U19 | Juventus U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2020 | Juventus U17 | Juventus U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 10 Jan 2020 | Vélez U20 | Juventus U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2019 | Vélez JV | Vélez U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.