Youssef Chermiti
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Youssef Chermiti's performance-implied value at EUR 4.0M-26.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 11.0M-23.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 8.6M-29.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.01x the positional average in the league (1525 minutes, league coefficient 0.31). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 39
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 64.2th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €18.5M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1525 (51% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.83
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.51
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 64 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1427
- Opponent strength
- 1221
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €8.6M – €29.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +45% (IQR -36% to +292%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1525 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 12 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 75%–114%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 67%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rangers FC | Scottish Premiership | ST | 25 | 1525 | 51% | 11 | 3 | 0.83 | 0.51 | 1221 | 1427 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Everton FC | Premier League | ST | 4 | 42 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 1628 | 1567 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Everton FC | Premier League | ST | 18 | 196 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 1548 | 1514 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Sporting CP | Liga Portugal | ST | 16 | 839 | 27% | 3 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.36 | 1419 | 1669 | 0.68 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | Rangers FC | 8 | 575 | 0 | 0 | 1491 |
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Rangers FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Sporting CP | 5 | 127 | 0 | 0 | 1666 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Zirkzee Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 21 | €11.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Yuito Suzuki Superliga · 2024 | 23 | €6.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Ibrahim Osman Superliga · 2024 | 20 | €12.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| John Guidetti Scottish Premiership · 2015 | 23 | €3.5M | €8.0M | rose |
| Júnior Brumado Superliga · 2022 | 23 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Mohamed Daramy Superliga · 2023 | 21 | €6.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Semih Kılıçsoy Super Lig · 2024 | 19 | €12.0M | €11.0M | flat |
| Mykhaylo Mudryk Premier Liga · 2022 | 21 | €9.0M | €35.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025 | Everton | Rangers | €8.6M | €8.0M |
| 11 Aug 2023 | Sporting | Everton | €12.5M | €3.0M |
| 10 Jan 2023 | Sporting B | Sporting | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Sporting CP U23 | Sporting B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Sporting U17 | Sporting CP U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.